Holy Roman Empire

Franz, while restructuring the industry, did not neglect to create trouble for the Russians, aiming to disrupt Alexander II’s plans as much as possible.

In the realm of interests, there are no true allies, and notions of right or wrong become irrelevant. One’s identity dictates one’s position. Franz’s decision to limit his efforts to merely disrupt Russian grain exports already showed considerable restraint on his part.

Completely blocking Russian grain exports was unrealistic, but setting up some obstacles was not difficult. For instance, Austria’s foreign ministry, with a bit of diplomatic maneuvering, prompted neighboring Switzerland to impose high tariffs on the Russians.

Similarly, within the German Federal Empire, there was an ongoing debate over accepting Russia’s grain as debt repayment. The reason was straightforward: the states that hadn’t lent money to Russia opposed it.

Austria’s diplomatic influence played a role here, but the primary reason was their general displeasure toward the Russians. Simply disliking the Russians was a significant factor, and it fueled their opposition.

The grievances involved were already too complex to untangle. In short, Russia’s enemies were spread across the European continent, so targeting them was not difficult at all.

Subsequently, Belgium and the Netherlands were successfully lobbied by Austria and imposed high tariffs on Russia, and Spain and Portugal followed suit.

The reason was very practical: the Russians were down and out now.

Perhaps the Russians would rise again in the future, but with Austria and Prussia blocking them, there was no immediate concern.

In contrast, Austria’s threat was immediate. Who knew what kind of retaliation might follow if they refused the Austrian government’s goodwill?

France’s annexation of Italian states had already alarmed neighboring countries. Although Austria was likely to be more discreet and less inclined to annex them outright, it could still find an excuse to assert dominance.

Since the announcement of the alliance between Britain, France, and Austria, European countries no longer believed they could ensure their safety by balancing the great powers.

Given this new reality, it was wiser for smaller nations to behave well and maintain good relations with their neighbors, making it difficult for larger powers to take hostile actions.

This strategy might seem cowardly, but it’s how small countries survive. They can express grievances during stable times, but in critical moments, they must avoid standing on the wrong side.

As for Britain and France, Franz wasn’t overly concerned with futile efforts. Despite ongoing alliance talks, taking them too seriously would be a mistake. This alliance was formed with each party harboring its own motives, barely held together by shared interests. When it comes to fundamental issues, there’s no genuine discussion.

Convincing Britain and France wouldn’t be difficult, but it would signal the end of the Austro-Russian alliance. Although Franz no longer valued this alliance, he wasn’t willing to proactively break the treaty. National credibility was at stake. A country that disregards treaties loses international respect.

If Austria were to break the Austro-Russian alliance, it would be challenging to regain its current esteemed status and might even face exclusion from the soon-to-be-formed Tripartite Alliance.

The friendly relationship between France and Austria largely relied on Britain, primarily due to Britain’s history of betraying allies, which made people instinctively wary.

Franz didn’t plan to take such drastic measures. If Austria acted that way, it would no longer be seen as a reliable ally.

The Habsburg dynasty has carefully cultivated Austria’s reputation over many years. Since the Congress of Vienna, Austria has held significant influence over European continental affairs, largely due to their reputation.

When forming alliances, there’s an inherent sense of trust. Currently, Austria and Russia are merely engaging in fair competition. If their diplomacy isn’t enough, that’s their own fault. Franz has adhered to the rules without resorting to underhanded tactics.

Otherwise, pirates in the Aegean Sea could effectively block the Russians, given the Black Sea Fleet’s few dilapidated sailboats. The Russian government had already set a precedent by having a naval fleet destroyed by pirates. If it happened again, one wonders if Alexander II could withstand it.

The cost of bribing Britain and France is too high and unnecessary, as the Russians are already struggling to achieve their goals.

Every shift in the status quo causes certain vested interests to suffer losses, and these people become the biggest opponents. In Britain and France, the nobility and farmers are the strongest opposition to cheap Russian grain.

A little manipulation of public opinion would suffice. Given Russia’s “excellent” reputation, it wouldn’t take much to spark protests and demonstrations.

These tactics shouldn’t be deployed prematurely. The best time is when Russian grain ships arrive at port. Inciting a few hot-headed youths to set a fire would be more effective than any amount of talk.

These small tricks are of limited value though, at most delaying the Russians by 2-3 years and making them pay a bit more. In the long run, capitalists seeking profit will inevitably collaborate with the Russians. Once they start cooperating, these minor tactics will lose their effectiveness.

Franz doesn’t favor using conspiracies primarily because, no matter how clever the schemes, they are insignificant in the face of profit.

Austria isn’t the only one targeting the Russians; Prussia is even more proactive. Compared to the Austrian government, the Prussian government is more concerned about the potential resurgence of the Russian Empire.

Seeing Alexander II focus on internal reforms, economic development, and restoring national strength, the Prussian government remains uneasy. The two sides are mortal enemies with no possibility of reconciliation. Once the Russian Empire recovers, another Russo-Prussian War is inevitable.

The Junker nobility is prepared to strike first, having tasted the benefits and now seeking greater gains from the Russians. Their lack of action is due to insufficient strength and capability to attack the Russian Empire.

In the past two years, Austro-Prussian relations have improved significantly, with Austria quietly encouraging the Prussian government. Many pro-Austrian Junker nobles are also leading the anti-Russian sentiment.

Currently, being anti-Russian is the politically correct stance in the Kingdom of Prussia. When everyone around you is anti-Russian, failing to be anti-Russian would attract attention.

Franz was already considering whether to renew the alliance with Russia after its expiration. Due to geopolitical factors, the conflicts of interest between the two countries are likely to increase in the future.

Franz had no confidence in the Russian government’s integrity. Alexander II was also an ambitious monarch, but his luck was bad, happening to be in power when the empire was transitioning from prosperity to decline, forcing him to carry out social reforms.

This is a common trait among all ambitious rulers: their ambitions are often too great. If the Russians were to resolve their issues with Poland and Prussia, a confrontation between Russia and Austria would be inevitable.

Meanwhile, France has been led into a trap. With Napoleon III now old and preoccupied with paving the way for his son, it is highly unlikely that he would engage in military expeditions at this time.

Once Napoleon IV ascends to the throne, internal conflicts will erupt, Italians will seek independence, and it would be a blessing if France avoids a civil war. France simply won’t have the capacity to backstab Austria by then.

The conflict between Prussia and Russia is irreconcilable. Hoping for them to unite is a pipe dream. Conflicts over core interests will keep them at odds with each other.

The international situation has reached a point where Austria no longer needs to worry about fighting on multiple fronts. At this moment, the Russo-Austrian alliance, with its divergent interests, is becoming more of a burden than a benefit for Austria.

As long as Austria refrains from causing trouble on the European continent, there is no need to worry about being ganged up on. There’s no love or hate without reason, and similarly, no one would attack without cause.

If in the next Russo-Prussian War, the Russians fail again, then this European steamroller will meet its end. Without the constraints of the alliance, it would be convenient for Austria to kick them while they are down.

Conversely, if Prussia is defeated, the Junker nobility, having lost their foundation, would have no choice but to compromise with Austria and join the Holy Roman Empire for self-preservation.

Both outcomes seem quite favorable. As long as the French remain entangled in the Italian quagmire, Franz has nothing to fear.

While entertaining these thoughts, Franz keeps his true intentions concealed. To the outside world, Russia and Austria still appear to be good allies, and the alliance between Britain, France, and Austria seems imminent.

European alliances typically have a time limit, with thirty years being considered long. The Russo-Austrian alliance was one such long-term agreement. This was only possible when relations between the two countries were quite good. However, even the best relationships can’t withstand the erosion of time.

If Alexander II hadn’t been such an ambitious ruler, the Russo-Austrian relationship could have been maintained for many more years. Unfortunately, reality does not entertain such what-ifs.

Faced with an ambitious tsar, Franz cannot afford to let his guard down. With such a large butterfly effect, who could guarantee that Alexander II would die from assassination as he did in the original timeline?

If he were to continue leading the Russian Empire, Russia and Austria would eventually clash over interests. In fact, the two sides were already at odds.

They hadn’t openly fallen out because their conflicts of interest weren’t significant enough yet. It was only for the sake of the Russian Empire’s large market that Franz had been maintaining the alliance.

There were many points of conflict between the two sides, such as strategic conflicts. The Aegean Sea was now within Austria’s sphere of influence, and whether they liked it or not, the task of guarding the Mediterranean gateway fell to Austria.

British influence in the Mediterranean had already been squeezed to insignificance. If Russia were to be let in, they would be sharing their own interests.

Needless to say, at this point, Franz wouldn’t provide even a foothold for Russia to expand its influence in the Mediterranean.

It could be said that Napoleon III’s schemes had succeeded. This was an open conspiracy. Whether they liked it or not, once France withdrew, Russia and Austria would directly clash over Mediterranean issues.

There hasn’t been an outbreak of conflict because the Russian forces are weak. With the Black Sea Fleet’s remaining outdated sailing ships, any attempt to assert their presence in the Mediterranean is likely to end with them being annihilated by pirates.

Conflicts of interest are brutally straightforward, with nothing off-limits. Napoleon III, realizing the strategic pressure of controlling the Balkans, decisively abandoned this area.

The Austrian government couldn’t possibly refuse interests handed to them on a platter. By taking over the French Balkans, the task of containing Russia fell on Austria’s shoulders.

Before the British were squeezed out, Austria could feign weakness. After all, Greece was John Bull’s little brother, and it was up to them as the big brother to step up.

Now, the interests in this region are in Austria’s hands. Any Russian attempt to enter would be an encroachment on Austrian interests, something the Austrian government would naturally oppose.

Considering the magnitude of these interests, Alexander II’s silence is notable, reflecting a level of cunning and ambition that Franz cannot ignore.

Although aware that this was France’s scheme, in the face of interests, the Austrian government was still willing to accept this kind of situation. This was the terrifying nature of open conspiracies.

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