Holy Roman Empire

The Near East War had erupted again, and nations that did not wish to see Austria continue expanding sprang into action. How to effectively and meaningfully sabotage Austria was, in itself, an art.

London

In the Prime Minister’s residence at 10 Downing Street, the British Cabinet was gathered. Prime Minister Gladstone handed out a stack of classified documents to the group.

“This is Austria’s war plan. Our intelligence services paid a heavy price to obtain it. Hopefully, it will aid our next steps.”

Indeed, a “high price” was paid. This semi-public plan was almost ready to be printed in Vienna’s newspapers. British intelligence agents had spent a full 50,000 pounds just to obtain the preliminary outline. Don’t ask where the money went—intelligence is priceless.

No one spoke as they carefully read through the papers. The content wasn’t extensive, just a rough plan without specific battle details.

Minister of the Navy Robert, with his prominent bushy beard, frowned deeply, “According to this war plan, Austria won’t have to pay much of a price to win this war.

With the state of the Ottoman navy, they wouldn’t even have the ability to fight back against Austria. Once they lost control of the seas, the coalition forces could land troops anywhere at any time.

From what our navy has gathered, the Ottoman Empire has at least 30 ports suitable for large-scale landings, and the real number could be even higher.

To defend that many locations, they would need at least a million soldiers, something the Ottoman Empire is incapable of mustering with its current resources.

Once the coastal areas are ravaged, creating large numbers of war refugees, the Ottoman Empire will quickly be worn down. This scorched-earth plan is brutal.”

Everyone understood Robert’s point. Criticizing Austria’s brutal war plan was secondary. The main point was to stress the importance of “naval supremacy.”

No one objected—naval supremacy was indeed crucial to the British Empire. The Ottoman Empire’s predicament was merely further proof of this fact.

Prime Minister Gladstone nodded, “Indeed, Austria’s plan is very ruthless. If we don’t find a way to intervene, the Ottoman Empire will collapse in no time.

And it will be a total collapse, without even the benefit of weakening Austria in the process. Without this thorn in Austria’s side, it will be even harder for us to restrain their power.”

He picked up a baton and gestured at the map on the wall, “Take a look at this world map. The blue areas represent Austria’s colonial territories or spheres of influence. In just the past 20 years, Austria has become the second-largest colonial power, just behind us.

The issue of overseas colonial expansion isn’t urgent right now. The world has already been largely divided up, leaving only some hard-to-conquer or relatively low-value regions.

Let’s shift our focus back to the European continent. This is the European landscape after the Russo-Prussian War. The Russian Empire has been weakened and its influence confined to Eastern Europe.

The Kingdom of Prussia has risen, and France has also revived. Currently, the various European nations are balancing each other out, and with us acting as mediators, overall stability can still be maintained.

But we cannot afford to be complacent. Since the end of the Napoleonic Wars, Austria, through diplomacy, has maintained a leading position on the European continent.

If this were the Austria of 20 years ago, that would be a good thing since they helped us maintain the balance of power in Europe.

However, the situation has changed in the past decade. The Austrian government’s foreign policy has become harder to understand, and its strategic objectives have become unclear.

The only thing we can be certain of is that the policy of balancing power in Europe is no longer at the core of Austria’s strategy. Otherwise, the French would not have been able to annex Italy.”

Taking a step back, Gladstone’s expression grew serious, “In today’s world, there are only two countries capable of threatening British supremacy.” He pointed his baton at two places on the map—France and Austria.

“According to intelligence from Paris, Napoleon III is bedridden, and the young crown prince is too weak to control the various domestic factions. Once Napoleon III passes, a power struggle will be inevitable, and France won’t be a threat for some time.

Austria, on the other hand, is different. Its domestic situation is stable, Franz is in his prime, and now, full of ambition, he has launched the Near East War.

Once the Ottoman Empire collapses, The Austrian government’s next target will undoubtedly be the annexation of the German Federal Empire.

They’ve chosen the perfect time. Prussia and Russia are mutually restraining and opposing each other, unable to intervene together. France, in the process of power transition, is very likely not to send troops to intervene for the sake of stability.

The remaining European countries are all fence-sitters. While they might cheer from the sidelines, asking them to restrain Austria would be too much. As for us, even though we wish to intervene, we lack the strength to do it alone.”

This was the greatest concern for the British. If Austria unified the German states, it would dominate Europe, leaving no clear path for others to contain its power.

This isn’t the same timeline where Franco-German animosity could be exploited. The countries of Europe aren’t foolish—without significant benefits, they wouldn’t blindly rush into a conflict with Austria.

The Austrian government is also skilled at diplomacy. Since Franz took the throne, Austria has never been isolated.

The Vienna System has been established twice, and there’s no reason it couldn’t be established a third time. With Prussia and Russia opposed to each other, the Ottomans defeated, and France in internal turmoil, Austria’s chances of establishing continental dominance were very high.

Foreign Minister Maclean added, “From the Empire’s perspective, we cannot allow the Ottoman Empire to fall. Supporting the Ottomans alone isn’t enough—the gap between their forces and Austria’s is too wide, and the Ottoman government won’t hold out for long.

Directly confronting Austria is too difficult, so we’ll need to find ways to exploit Prussia, France, and Russia. The Foreign Office is currently lobbying Prussia to provoke a border conflict with Russia, and we’re also working to stir up Central Asian nations to pressure Russia into withdrawing from the war.

Once Russia exits the conflict, we can join forces with France to hold naval exercises in the Mediterranean, signaling our readiness to intervene and intimidate Austria.

Franz isn’t one to take risks. He plans everything meticulously, which is both a strength and a weakness. As long as we create enough noise, and bring other European countries into the peace talks, Austria is likely to back down.

If the plan fails, we can stir up trouble overseas to divert their attention.

Austria’s colonial system isn’t flawless. We can’t touch Austrian Africa, and Central America is tricky, but other regions are more vulnerable.”

Chancellor of the Exchequer Largo Lloyd asked, “This plan sounds good, but where is our gain? We can’t bear such a large cost without any return, can we?”

British diplomacy is always pragmatic. Suppressing Austria is fine, but it can’t come at the expense of Britain’s own interests.

Rallying European countries isn’t just a matter of saying a few words—it requires costs. Even smaller countries need appearance fees just to wave the flag, and all of this adds up.

Especially the last option, directly targeting Austria’s colonies, would require even more resources.

As for the potential benefits, there’s not much to speak of. Austria’s richest colonies are untouchable, and what’s left are just scraps with little to no return.

Alaska, for instance, is mostly ice, offering a few furs or some fish at best. If Britain were interested, it would have taken it in the last century, with no need to wait until now.

Patagonia isn’t any better. Even the Spanish abandoned their colonies there, proving it was a losing investment.

Argentina and Chile might have some interest in that land, but they don’t have the guts to take it from Austria—or perhaps the rewards just aren’t enticing enough.

The Austrian Southeast Asian colonies are relatively richer, but the cost of seizing them is too high, and no nearby allies can help. Britain would have to act alone.

Considering the cost, even if the plan succeeds, Britain would still lose money, not to mention gaining an enemy. Knocking Austria down might make these investments worthwhile, but the real problem is if it backfires, forcing France and Austria closer together, which would be a disaster.

Maclean stood up, walked over to the hanging map, and drew a circle with his hand.

“This is the current territory of Austria, and compared to the first Near East War, it has grown by double.”

He pointed to another spot on the map, “This is the Suez Canal. If the Ottoman Empire collapses, Austria’s influence will stretch all the way to the Indian Ocean.

On one side of the canal is Austria’s Sinai Peninsula, and on the other is French-controlled Egypt. Britain would be left with nothing at the second Mediterranean gateway. I’m sure that gives everyone something to think about!

While this plan may not significantly weaken Austria, it would at least allow us to get a foothold in the Suez Canal, turning Franco-Austrian control into a tripartite Anglo-Franco-Austrian agreement. How does that sound?”

France and Austria currently guard the Suez Canal very tightly, leaving Britain no opportunity to get involved. To gain a foothold, Britain would first need to drive a wedge between France and Austria.

The British government has been trying to do just that but with little success. While many in the French government are pro-British, that doesn’t mean they’re willing to sell out their country.

Napoleon III is no pushover either. When it comes to the Suez Canal, he won’t even discuss the issue with Britain. There’s no room for negotiation, let alone allowing Britain a hand in the matter.

Austria is even more out of the question. Franz treats the Suez Canal as his lifeline. The Austrian government was thinking about how to monopolize the Suez Canal. How could they possibly let the British get involved?

...

In Paris, the bedridden Napoleon III could no longer concern himself with the Near East War. He was at the final stage of his life, and his ministers didn’t dare trouble him with such issues.

If the emperor were to be stressed and pass away while being briefed, they would be seen as the culprits. Unlike in the other timeline where Napoleon III was overthrown, the French public still supported him.

Even if the young emperor were forgiving, public opinion alone could drown them in spit. In short, the emperor’s health was more important than the Near East War.

The Crown Prince Eugène, who was handling state affairs, was influenced by Napoleon III and chose a cautious approach when uncertain, preferring to keep things stable and unchanging.

Raising slogans was fine—France continued to call for restraint from both sides—but they refrained from taking real action. They seemed to be waiting for the British government to take the lead, ready to cheer them on from the sidelines.

The French approach of remaining immovable caused great frustration for the British. They were not used to moving forward without France leading the charge.

...

In the Vienna Palace, Franz put down the newspaper and asked, “The Prussians still haven’t made a move?”

The responses of Britain and France were within Franz’s expectations, but the behavior of the Prussian government puzzled him.

Franz could never believe that the Prussians had no ambitions for Poland. But if they had ambitions, why weren’t they acting? A once-in-a-lifetime opportunity had presented itself, yet the Prussian government remained completely silent. What was going on?

Could it be that William I had seen through his plan? That didn’t seem right either. Even if the Prussians had figured out the plan, it was still unlikely that they would pass up the chance to annex Poland.

Even if they were worried about strong Polish nationalism, that wouldn’t prevent a dual monarchy. At worst, they could operate two separate governments, each managing its own affairs.

There were plenty of such examples. In the original timeline, the Austro-Hungarian Empire was an upgraded version of the dual monarchy system, though also a step backward from a unified empire.

The head of intelligence, Tyron, replied, “No. We’ve been watching the Prussian government closely, and as of now, they haven’t taken any action.

Additionally, the Berlin Palace has been holding a lot of meetings lately, some of which go late into the night. The Prussians have tightly sealed off information, so no one knows the specifics of the discussions.

However, from our agents’ observations, the people coming out of the meetings tend to look serious, and some even have grim expressions. Our preliminary assessment suggests there has been some disagreement.”

At least there was unusual activity. The most worrisome scenario for a great power was when there was no movement at all. As long as a major power didn’t make significant mistakes, it was hard for external forces to bring it down.

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